Home prices remain raised nationwide, and more owners are choosing to invest in their current properties instead of moving. According to the National Association of Home Builders, roughly 320,000 fewer homeowners relocated in 2024 than in 2023. That shift is pushing the remodeling market into a period of steady growth. Mississippi, for example, has seen renovation activity accelerate faster than the national average.
Remodeling demand varies widely from state to state.
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A new tool for state-level renovation data
The NAHB’s new State Projections of Remodeling (SPR) model fills a long-standing gap. It provides quarterly estimates of renovation spending as a share of each state’s total GDP and its total dollar value. National estimates already exist, but state-level renovation data has been limited for years.
Residential renovation work is expected to increase 3% in 2026 and another 2% in 2027, according to NAHB projections. Access to quarterly, state-level spending data will be key for business owners, industry professionals, and policymakers trying to make informed decisions.
Largest states dominate, but growth rates matter more
Home improvement spending typically follows population levels, so it’s no surprise that the biggest states also have the largest renovation market shares. California led the nation in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a renovation market share of 7.9% and a total dollar value of $22.1 billion.
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But for less populous states, the headline figure isn’t total size — it’s growth rate. The ability to see whether a state’s year-over-year renovation activity is soaring or sinking can be invaluable. It also shows how strong upgrading is within that state’s overall economy.
How the data helps policymakers and remodelers
The SPR provides baseline insights into where each state’s renovation market stands. For policymakers, it highlights successes and points to areas where improvements may be needed. For states that are lagging, especially compared to their neighbors, the data serves as an alarm bell — change likely is needed to stimulate the industry.
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For remodelers and other industry professionals, the SPR is a business development tool. It can highlight which areas they should prioritize and help them prepare for the future. Certain factors, like slow population growth, can increase remodeling’s market share relative to new construction. Business owners can act accordingly and shift more of their work into the renovation space.
Still, the model is a significant step forward from having no state-level data at all.
